How to Lead Through Uncertainty: 4 Ways to Build Confidence in Turbulent Times

Leading in Uncertainty
Photo by Blue Ox Studio/Pexels

Uncertainty is widespread in the world right now, but it doesn’t have to derail your team. There are ways to stay steady, lead well, and support others when everything feels up in the air. Here are practical strategies to help managers focus on what really matters, lead through uncertainty and build confidence in times of change. By Steve Rabson Stark

In times like these, it’s no wonder we all feel overwhelmed.

Trade wars. Actual wars. Funding cuts. A fragile economy.

In fact, a recent PwC Survey of CEO’s found that more than 40% of global leaders are not confident that their organisations will be economically viable in 10 years if they stay on their current path.

That kind of uncertainty is everywhere, and it’s taking its toll.

Like many people, I’ve been feeling anxious about the state of the world – what’s going on in the USA, in Ukraine, with the UK economy.

As a coach and consultant working with leaders and teams in Higher Education and other sectors, I’m noticing a consistent pattern: a drop in confidence, and a rise in anxiety. Clients tell me how tough it is out there. I find myself saying the same.

And I’ve noticed this general anxiety showing up everywhere: in conversations with clients, in coffee queues, and even at art fairs…

Over the weekend, my co-director Katharine was exhibiting her ceramics. Many of the other artists commented that people are browsing more, buying less.

And when I stepped back, it struck me: uncertainty doesn’t just live in boardrooms and budgets. It’s ubiquitous.

It’s affecting how we show up, and how we behave – and what we believe is possible.

Can We Create Certainty in Uncertain Times?

The honest answer?

You can’t make the world more certain. But you can learn how to be more comfortable with the unknown.

This is something I care about both personally and professionally.

And it’s a theme we’ve been exploring in our HELP group: a free peer learning space for people in Higher Education who want to lead better outcomes for themselves, their teams, and their students.

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It’s free, confidential, and focused on real, practical support.
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In one of our recent HELP sessions about leading through uncertainty, someone said something that’s stayed with me:
“We often try to solve issues through processes, not people – believing a process can make uncertain things certain. It can’t. But we can always talk to people.”

That’s really the heart of it.

After that conversation, I asked ChatGPT what it had to say about responding to uncertainty.

Here’s the 4-point framework it offered, which I found surprisingly helpful, not because it’s revolutionary, but because it brought some clarity to leading through uncertainty.

Four Ways to Feel More Confident Through Uncertainty

1. You can’t make the future certain, but you can make your response more certain.
You can’t control funding cuts, policy changes or life surprises, but you can shape how you show up: with adaptability, calm, and readiness.

2. You can reduce uncertainty through clarity.
Even in messy situations, clarity helps. Clear values. Clear roles. Clear next steps.
“We don’t know what the government will decide about X, but here’s what we can do this week.”

3. You can create anchors.
Anchors are your constants. Routines, principles, relationships, structure. They won’t eliminate uncertainty, but they give you something steady to hold onto.

In fact, I’ve come to see the HELP group itself as an anchor: a safe, neutral space to talk, reflect, and regroup.

4. You can shift from needing certainty to building confidence without it.
This is about mindset. “I can handle whatever comes” is more sustainable than “I need to know what’s coming.”
It’s self-trust over situation-control.

There’s a lot I like in this framework.

It aligns with good sustainable leadership and management practice:

  • You don’t need to have all the answers.
  • You do need to listen, reflect, clarify, and help people find next steps.

I was also reminded of a post we shared on why plans don’t help, but it doesn’t mean planning is pointless.

Planning is an anchor. It doesn’t guarantee certainty, but it brings clarity and builds capability. That’s what matters.

What Actually Helps in Uncertain Times?

Through our work with teams, and in HELP sessions, the techniques we keep coming back to for supporting people that really make a difference are often the simplest:

  1. Talk to people
  2. Listen to their concerns
  3. Acknowledge that their concerns are real
  4. Help them find one small action that restores a sense of control

Feeling like you have some control – even a little – can shift the whole story you tell yourself and how you feel.

For example:
One of my coaching clients once felt completely overwhelmed by her email inbox. She’d tried Inbox Zero but hadn’t quite finished the process.

When we looked at it together, she realised she’d already done enough – she just hadn’t noticed.

That shift gave her back a sense of control. She stopped thinking about quitting, and started thinking about promotion.

The story hadn’t changed. But her sense of self in it had.

In real life, there’s no sense that we’re going to make anything that’s uncertain really certain. But we might equip ourselves collectively to be more okay with it by asking personally and organisationally: what are the practices that help us to respond well?

ChatGPT also suggested a manager checklist, which I do quite like. I’m not saying it is brilliant or right. But it prompted me to think about my practice and ask myself whether I was doing all I could.

See what you think – what’s missing, and how could it be improved?

Here’s a quick summary:

Summary of Manager’s Checklist for Leading Through Uncertainty

Here’s the prompts ChatGPT gave me – not perfect, but a helpful nudge:

  • Are you communicating openly and regularly?
  • Does your team know what the current top priorities are?
  • Have you created a culture where it’s safe to speak up, share doubts, and be real?
  • Could your team stay effective if things shift suddenly – or someone’s unavailable?
  • Are you listening more than you’re fixing?
  • Are you empowering your team to make decisions?
  • And how are you looking after your own resilience, clarity, and support network?
  • It made me reflect on my own practice. Maybe it will do the same for you.

👉 Download the full Leading Through Uncertainty checklist here.

DOWNLOAD CHECKLIST

Want a Place to Talk This Through?

Our HELP group sessions run every month throughout term time. If you work in UK Higher Education and want to explore how to support yourself and others through uncertainty, join us.

If you’re not in HE, stay tuned. We’ll keep sharing what we’re learning in future posts.

At ThenSomehow we help universities and other HE organisations build emotional literacy, increase empathy, and help you see the world differently, giving you practical tools to shift the stuff that’s stuck.

If you’d like to discuss how we can help your organisation develop leaders and perform better, get in touch here.

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